By setting your entry and exit points using the Fibonacci retracement
levels you have identified, you put the odds in your favor that
you will be successful over the long run. Though you may lose some
money on this particular trade, if you continue to set up your trades
in a similar fashion, you should be profitable over the long run. We
talk about why that is more fully in Chapter 16 on money management.
For now, just know that if you stand to gain more than you
have at risk, the odds are in your favor over the long run.
One of the most convenient features of technical analysis,
including Fibonacci analysis, is the ability to use the same strategies
in both upward trending and downward trending markets. Looking
again at a chart of the USD/JPY pair (Figure 14.21), you can see that
the same relationship between the price movement and the Fibonacci
retracement levels that existed during a downward trending market.
Once again, you would have been focusing on the 38.2 percent
retracement level for your trade entry point. However, in this case
because the previous trend you were analyzing was an uptrend, you
would have been looking to set your entry point at 10 percent above
that retracement level instead of 10 percent below the retracement
level. Setting your exit points also follows the same pattern we have
been discussing in the last two case studies. You would set your stop-
loss exit point at the 50 percent retracement level, and you would
set your profit target exit point at the 0 percent retracement level.
Of course, your stop-loss exit point would be below your entry point,
while your profit target exit point would be above your entry point in
this case because you are anticipating that the currency pair will
resume its previous upward trend, but the idea is the same.
Now, in looking at the previous three case studies, you have
probably noticed that the price of the currency pair has moved well
beyond the initial profit target set at the 0 percent retracement level
in each example. This should not be a surprise because, as we mention
earlier, if a currency pair has established a new trend, it will
most likely continue in that direction until something in the market
changes. Knowing that this is generally the case, we want to show
you how you can project future continuations of a previous trend
utilizing Fibonacci projection levels.
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